Finite-width fully connected neural networks with Gaussian-initialized weights deviate from their infinite-width Gaussian limit, exhibiting non-vanishing higher-order cumulants. We approximate these deviations, for a neural network evaluated in a finite number of inputs, using multidimensional Edgeworth expansions of arbitrary order $4m-1$, with $m\in\mathbb{N}$. Assuming that the corresponding Gaussian limit has an invertible covariance matrix and that the activation function is polynomially bounded, we establish a bound of order $n^{-m}$ on the total variation distance between the law of the true network output and its Edgeworth approximation, with matching lower bounds. As an application, we quantify the error in Bayesian posterior distributions when the prior is replaced by its Edgeworth expansion. Our results are more general and also apply to sequences of conditionally Gaussian vectors converging to a Gaussian vector with invertible covariance.

We introduce a simple yet powerful framework for training large language models. In contrast to the standard autoregressive next-token prediction based on an exact prefix, we propose a perturbation-based procedure that first transforms the prefix into a semantic neighbor and then conditions on this perturbed variant for next-token prediction. This yields a hierarchical model with a pre-post-additive noise structure. Within this framework, we develop a rigorous theory of extrapolability, namely, the capacity of a model class to make reliable predictions for token sequences that lie outside the empirical support of the training corpus. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure using both synthetic and real-world language data. Results show that the proposed method consistently improves out-of-support prediction while maintaining competitive in-support performance, demonstrating that perturbation offers a practical route to language modeling.

We consider a Bayesian forecast aggregation model where nexperts, after observing private signals about an unknown binary event, report their posterior beliefs about the event to a principal, who then aggregates the reports into a single prediction for the event. The signals of the experts and the outcome of the event follow a joint distribution that is unknown to the principal, but the principal has access to i.i.d. "samples" from the distribution, where each sample is a tuple of the experts' reports (not signals) and the realization of the event. Using these samples, the principal aims to find an ε-approximately optimal aggregator, where optimality is measured in terms of the expected squared distance between the aggregated prediction and the realization of the event. We show that the sample complexity of this problem is at least Ω(mn 2/ε) for arbitrary discrete distributions, where m is the size of each expert's signal space. This sample complexity grows exponentially in the number of experts n. But, if the experts' signals are independent conditioned on the realization of the event, then the sample complexity is significantly reduced, to O(1/ε2), which does not depend on n. Our results can be generalized to non-binary events. The proof of our results uses a reduction from the distribution learning problem and reveals the fact that forecast aggregation is almost as difficult as distribution learning.

The study of provable adversarial robustness has mostly been limited to classification tasks and models with one-dimensional real-valued outputs. We extend the scope of certifiable robustness to problems with more general and structured outputs like sets, images, language, etc.

High-stakes prediction tasks (e.g., patient diagnosis) are often handled by trained

In online learning literature, stochastic and adversarial settings are two of the most well-studied cases.

In online learning literature, stochastic and adversarial settings are two of the most well-studied cases.